WSJ has an op-ed titled “Whole Foods Republicans” this week, about how the GOP might win the next election, and I think it basically holds water.
The premise is simple and stated neatly in the kicker: The GOP needs to enlist voters who embrace a progressive lifestyle but not progressive politics. Writer Michael Petrilli specifically mentions the college-educated voting bloc as a crucial and longterm problem for the GOP.
As less-educated seniors pass away and better-educated 20- and 30-somethings take their place in the electorate, this bloc will exert growing influence. And here’s the distressing news for the GOP: According to exit-poll data, a majority of college-educated voters (53%) pulled the lever for Mr. Obama in 2008—the first time a Democratic candidate has won this key segment since the 1970s.
Petrilli narrows his focus on sustainable foodies and the hipster elite, a group he calls hopefully, “Whole Foods Republicans.”
These highly-educated individuals appreciate diversity and would never tell racist or homophobic jokes; they like living in walkable urban environments; they believe in environmental stewardship, community service and a spirit of inclusion. And yes, many shop at Whole Foods, which has become a symbol of progressive affluence but is also a good example of the free enterprise system at work. (Not to mention that its founder is a well-known libertarian who took to these pages to excoriate ObamaCare as inimical to market principles.)
Personally, I think the writer is on to something. I’ve been working for natural food co-ops since the early nineties and I can tell you with complete assurance that Republicans do choose organic and natural foods in greater numbers than one might imagine. It’s not a huge voting bloc, and I’m sure many voted for Bush twice this decade as well as Obama. But when we’re talking about 5-7% that might swing an election, Whole Foods Republicans could certainly be a deciding factor in the next election.
Peeling them away from organic-gardening- and Whole Foods-shopping Obama, however, might be another story. I’m reminded of the old Steve Martin bit: “How to become a millionaire in two easy steps! First, get a million dollars. Next…”
This might be nearly impossible, for reasons outlined in the WSJ op-ed itself:
Widening this cultural divide [between populist right and elite left] has long been part of the GOP playbook, going back to Nixon’s attacks on “East Coast intellectuals” and forward to candidate Obama’s arugula-eating tendencies. But with the white working class shrinking and the educated “creative class” growing, playing the populism card looks like a strategy of subtraction rather than addition.
In short, talking points aren’t going to heal the divide. If Whole Foods Republicans really exist (and I’m not totally convinced they do), then they’re smart enough to know if a Republican candidate like Sarah Palin is holding her nose when she talks about lacinato kale or the importance of the National Organic Program.
The only person who could pull this off is a Republican who walks and talks the message of local/organic/sustainable, and here’s a scenario where it might happen. Of the current pool of likely names, I see Tim Pawlenty (pictured above) floating to the top, like this: Two candidates get devoured during the course of the Republican battle royale: Sarah Palin, QUITTER, and Mike Huckabee, SOFT ON CRIME. Pawlenty beats Romney in my rock-paper-scissors analysis, because he’s the more heartfelt Christian soldier and doesn’t look more manufactured than high fructose corn syrup.
Furthermore, for the sake of this scenario, T-Paw is an organic foods dude. I have it on good account that Pawlenty and his wife used to frequent the farmstand of a large certified organic farm south of Minneapolis (a fact that he may want to let out of the closet, one of these days)
Now you have THE candidate who can appeal to the Christian base, talk the Whole Foods Republican talk (organics expanded nicely under Gov. Pawlenty), and, if the economy is still in the crapper in four years, peel a few college-educated voters away from Obama in the general election, and deliver the White House back to the rightwing
Wait….what the hell am I saying???
Seriously, dude. Are you taking money form anti-depressant companies?
The above scenario does depend on Pawlenty somehow beating Palin/Huckabee/Gingrich in IA, because Romney will win NH and NV and Palin/Huckabee/Gingrich will win SC. Then there’s FL (who knows) and MI (Romney territoty). Add to this the fact that Romney’s network is already in place. Unless there’s a change in the primary calendar or Romney implodes, it might be hard sledding for Timmy.
After the primary, will he suddenly stop being a born-again climate change denier and take credit for the great climate change legislation he signed a few years ago? The state of the Republican base makes it hard for anyone to espouse environmental policies that will fly in both the primaries and the general election.
Mark McKinnon agrees with you, TM.
if you thought I was wrong.
But, look, someone’s going to take out Palin. I think the logical candidate is someone like Giuilliani if he’s still around in 2012, but as voting day draws near in Iowa, a desperate third-placer is going to start calling Palin quitter, and it’s going to stick, along with all the crap she left office to avoid. Ditto Huckabee on crime: He won’t make it to South Carolina.
You don’t like my Team T-Paw scenario?? I actually think Pawlenty has it in him to play the little dance-to-the-center game that national candidates do. You watch, he’ll be a fire-and-brimstone candidate until Palin and Huck flame out. Then he’ll suddenly be touting his Gardens of Eagan cred.
I know from my days answering phone calls from nice organic buying club ladies out in places like Litchfield, MN, that there are certainly good Christian households that eat organic, understand gluten intolerance (and I’m gonna pass on joking about how it’s the only intolerance they find unacceptable – oops), etc.
Some of them would appreciate T-paw revealing his organic-y self.
And my sister-in-law, who generally votes pocketbook R but took the O plunge last November might be pulled in by that posturing by T-paw. But she’ll probably respond to his phony-centrism anway. My long-time gripe with Pawlenty is that he pulls off what GW Bush <em>tried</em> to pull off with the ‘compassionate conservative’ line. But voters will find, to their dismay, that Tim is as ruthlessly conservative as Bush, if not more so…he just does radio as well as Clinton did.
Yikes.
The organic angle is intriguing to me, and I do think the right Republican candidate could even rebrand organics and local foods as conservative strategies to great effect.
But the biggest argument against this happening is that such a candidate would eventually have to appease Big Ag. McCain lost ground in Nebraska and other King Corn states by talking about gutting the Farm Bill — big mistake — while Obama got the endorsement of the Corn Growers Association. A Whole Foods Republican would have to achieve Obama-esque command of messaging in order sing to both aggies and sustainable foodies.