**April 26 — Updated with a response to Tom Philpott’s response below.
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Grist’s Tom Philpott is claming that the current swine flu outbreak might have its source in a Mexican CAFO (confined animal feedlot operation), run by mega pork producer Smithfield Foods.
Juicy, huh? Well, I have to say, Philpott is one of my favorite food-in-politics writers, but this piece leaves a lot to be desired. In his apparent rush to get his "scoop" online, Philpott has ignored some red flags about this theory. Take this claim for example:
Smithfield [the CAFO in question] operates massive hog-raising operations Perote, Mexico, in the state of Vera Cruz, where the outbreak originated.
The outbreak began in Veracruz, eh? Well, it started there according to the website that Philpott cites, Biosurveillance. But I could find no evidence of that anywhere beyond that site, let alone any serious conjecture at all about the source of the outbreak (it’s simply way too early to know that for sure). Moreover, Biosurveillance published a chart that makes this claim for April 25, "Mexico: Physician claims over 200 fatal cases of swine influenza." At the time, the Mexican government’s official count was only 81 deaths. Biosurveillance also claims that swine flu was reported in Minnesota, a fact I couldn’t verify either. So I’d be careful about quoting this website.
Biosurveillance may be an impressive hub of information (they have a brief description of how they aggregate here), but they apparently throw everything into the mix to create their aggregate timelines and news. They aren’t solely citing epidemiologists who are humping through farmlands of Mexico looking for outbreak sources — they’re citing newspaper reports and the like to get an overall picture of what’s happening in the culture in question (I believe). Consequently, specific information will necessarily be suspect.
Philpott also cites Biosurveillance’s swine flu oubtreak timeline, which is where he finds the connection from the influenza virus to the Smithfield CAFO:
Residents [of Perote, Veracruz] believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents…
"Residents believed"? "According to residents"?
Now, I’m willing to blame CAFOs for the evils of the world as much as the next masked man, but come on, throw me a bone here. This theory that swine flu started with a CAFO is based on what the locals think? There’s no epidemiological report backing up this theory? No Health Department assessments? No CDC conjecture? No virus hunters at all making informed guesses in the state of Veracruz? This is a desperate swing in the dark, at best.
Philpott does translate a Mexican newspaper, La Marcha, which also hangs the blame squarely on the local CAFO, but, again, no reputable scientists of any kind are quoted.
Philpott says that the US media had not picked up on this connection yet, so I can understand his desire to bust the story wide open. But at this rather hysterical stage of what might be a burgeoning pandemic, what we need is rock solid reporting and reliable information, not wild guesses and suppositions.
If he’s right, great. I’ll tip my hat, of course (in fact, Philpott’s theory will pair nicely with the idea that industrial poultry is to blame for H5N1 avian flu).
But I’m holding out till I read something firm from a trained epidemiologist.
UPDATE: I did find reference to a suspected sample of swine flu in Minnesota. Keep in mind, this is what constitutes a suspected case:
[Suspected samples] are samples from Minnesotans who have flu like symptoms and who have been to Mexico or who have been in contact with someone who has been to Mexico.
Good precaution, but it’s hardly worth reporting every "suspected" case. Apparently, MSNBC reported it online, too, according to a buddy on Twitter, but MSNBC seems to have since edited/updated the article in order to remove the MN reference.
UPDATE: My login is not working over at Grist, where Tom Philpott has responded to criticism about his reporting (Bud Dingler is not me, for the record).
Philpott explains that in his story he cited a Mexican paper, La Jornada, reporting that Mexican Health Department (IMSS) is investigating "clouds of flies" that might have carried the swine flu virus out of the Veracruz CAFO. To quote Philpot, "Don’t you think it’s news that the Mexican healthcare ministry is looking at U.S.-owned CAFOs as the source of a global flu pandemic?
I didn’t address that argument above, because it seemed absurd to me to suggest that flies are vectors of influenza. Flu, after all, is spread by airborne sputum, spraying, sneezing, etc. But a bit of reading taught me that flies can "mechanically" carry an influenza virus in infected fecal matter on their little feet and bodies. (Isn’t epidemiology fun??)
But please note that La Jornada’s article was written on April 5, at least a week before the current swine flu was identified as A/H1N1 (I think). Indeed, the La Jornada article never mentions the current flu by name — it simply calls the potentially CAFO-related sicknesses gripes ("flus") and neumonÃas (pneumonia). So, when Philpott says that La Jornada is "making the link" and that the article is referring to "the flu’ (emphasis mine), that’s a bit of a stretch . Yes, Mexican Health officials are investigating a US-based company, but not for the current swine flu outbreak from what I can tell.
That said, I think there are some solid leads in the La Jornada article. My rough translation of the money stat: "The treated number 400; however, colds ("gripa," cold — not gripe, "flu"), pneumonias, and bronchopneumonias affect 60% of the 3000 citizens of La Gloria, [the IMSS] declared."
If even a tenth of that number is actually flu, or swine flu, or even H1N1, that region around the CAFO is a damn good place for WHO and CDC epidemiologists to investigate.
