2008. Gone. History! Must be time for….
Food Trends in 2009!
And, lo, there are many, many to choose from:
* Girl Friday’s Take on Epicurious’s Take
* Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) Predictions
Well, they’re all wrong. But you? You’re right, because you’ve come to the right place for true food prognostication. Prepare now to receive…
The Glorious 2009 Food Predictions of El Dragón!
Just so you don’t think you’re getting cheap guesses, here let El Dragón make clear that he knows of what he speaks. El Dragón has nearly two decades of working in the natural foods industry under his wrestling belt, and, to demonstrate his incredible forward-thinking: He was involved in getting the Coulee Region Organic Producers Pool (CROPP) its first seed money from sources in Madison, WI. And what did CROPP do with that money?
Why it created the Organic Valley brand, of course. [Cue applause!]
So you see? El Dragón sees all. You will, you must listen to El Dragón !
OK. Enough silly-bluster. Here we go. Let’s run the header one more time, for readers who are arriving late:
The Glorious 2009 Food Predictions of El Dragón!
1) Home Fires Will Be Burnin’
Home cooking. Home brewing. Home home home, homies. Jarring, canning, and DIY food will be the new black, while restaurants, cafes, bistros, and fine dining will be about as popular as financial advice from Henry Paulson.
It will also be a year of home made gifts as Americans figure how to save a little money by making home made soaps, home made flavored cooking oils, home made this, and home made that. Knitting too wil be on the rise. Get ready for loooooots of pot holders for your birthdays, Food Fighters.
2) Regional is the New Local
Local has played its hand, and, with premium pricing associated with local foods, shoppers (and smart retailers) will default to the next best thing: Regional.
Regional (let’s define it as food that gets shipped outside a 100 or 150 mile radius from production) is the way to go in the coming economic downward spiral. There aren’t enough farmers around most large, urban centers to feed even the groovy, local, natural foods clientele. That leaves producers who have access to solid distribution to provide access to neighboring cities and states, while still telling a more personal, individualized story.
If local food can change the perception of itself as expensive, it might have another year in the limelight. But that doesn’t seem likely, and, frankly, I think shoppers now are looking for deals, not investment in infrastructure. That’s Obama’s job, not Joe the Plumber’s.
3) I’m Coming Up, So You Better Get This Dinner Party Started
Groups of twentysomethings will discover the splendor (and financial shrewdness) of celebrating the round-robin, weekly dinner party. Cook this week for your 10 buddies, and then you eat free for the next 9 weeks.
Not fine dining. Not extravagance. I’m guessing it’ll be the vat of superb chili or beef stew that’ll carry the day in most modest households. (Anyone want to share a great chili recipe in the comments??)
4) "Green" will be the new….green
Green may seem like a tired word, especially if you’re remotely connected to an ecologically minded lifestyle. But with Obama naming his Dream Green Team for creating his green economy, we’re about to hear a lot more about carbon trading, carbon sequestering, and carbon footprints.
Recycling, reuse centers, home composting (made you flinch), bicycling and gardening are all going to take on patriotic undertones in Americans’ dedication to these efforts.
5) Organic Food Will Get a Boost
"Organic" suddenly sounds very 2003 in the ears of El Dragón, but, like the concept of "green," organic is about to get a big reboot in 2009. But I’m not expecting it to come from the "secretary of food" let alone Tom Vilsack.
No, it’s going to come from the Department of Energy. Anyone associated with an organic farm and producing organic food will probably be able lay claim to some green credits, if President-elect Obama is at all serious about a green economy. After all, there isn’t a single sliver of US agriculture that’s actually bolstering a natural resource — carbon banking in the soil — like organic farming is.
This, in turn, will give a fistbump to the National Organic Program, organic certification, and strict standards. You’re gonna have to prove you’re organic if you want to play in any carbon trading reindeer games, says El Dragon.
So enough of that. What do you think? Fire off some bold predictions in the comment section, Food Fighters!
I agree with your predictions, though its a little hard to be optimistic about the Dept. of Ag. support for alternatives in distribution (regional) or production (small-scale), but we’ll see what Vilsack does in the coming weeks…?
I wanted to get your thoughts on the forecast for Fair Trade (domestic as well). Market retail value increased 47% in 2007, and I imagine 2008 might not be as impressive. Will consumers continue to see the importance of the Fair Trade movement and market for producers, globally? Or, get so narrowly focused on prices that Fair Trade goods might be glossed over?
 Benito
I think it depends on how people see Fair Trade. Those who see it as charity might cut back, along with their other giving. On the other hand, I have conducted focus groups with co-op consumers, and it seemed that they thought it was about solidarity – the idea that everyone involved in the making of the food deserves the same life that the consumers would expect for themselves.
I think history suggests that hard times can reinfrce this feeling of solidarity. In fact, the Populist push for co-ops in the 1800′s and the "first wave" co-ops of the 1930′s were expressions of solidarity in hard times. The co-op movement of the 60′s and 70′s were products of a different kind of hard times, created by war and alienation. It seems like financial difficulties, and the loss of faith in traditional elites that come with them (Wall Street bailout, anyone?) spur people to look to each other for new solutions.
If this is true, we might be looking at huge growth in Fair Trade in the years to come, as well as its rapid expansion into the domestic sphere, as people look for a little Fair Trade for themselves and their neighbors.
From another perspective, here’s an article on how Fair Trade will grow and can "boost corporate credentials." So thank God for that.
Yeah, I have no confidence that the Dept of Ag will support regional/local food systems. But I think the Dept of Energy might.
As for Fair Trade? Like every other sector of the economy, it’s all going to depend on what the bigger companies do during this vulnerable time. Will the huge FT players (Starbucks, etc) keep offering premiums to coffee farmers while their revenues plummet? Or will they abandon FT altogether? Will they take less of a profit in order to attract customers to FT? It’s going to be interesting to watch.
If they see the value and keep telling the FT story, consumers will see the value and pay the premium price. I guarantee it.
But think about this: Whole Foods Market is expected to lose 33% of its stock value in 2009 — and this after totally bottoming out in 2008. So the pie is going to shrink for organics, FT, grass-fed beef, etc., and, consequently, a real gut check is coming for the big groceries and food producers who jumped into the lucrative organic and natural foods market over the last decade.
While I think core shoppers will stay loyal to the good brands, it’s about to get very tumultuous in the natural foods market, in my opinion.
Carbon trades is a peculiarly interesting prediction. And how far down (or is it up?) the food ladder could carbon trading go? Will it go all the way to the reatiler who sells certified organic (co)?  Do you think I can offset my fuel consumption by purchasing co food? I like this idea, and I’ll bet the Big Grocers who say they are certified (organic) will jump on the food ladder too. And, btw, just because they say they are doesn’t really mean they really are…
It would make sense to me that the more directly you make your food purchase, the more carbon credits you’d get, but I’d also think that there’s a limit as to how much carbon one farm can trade.
But I don’t pretend to get how carbon trading works at that level.
I prefer home made foods. Simply great!
you forgot Crockpot Cooking!
While I asked for one as a graduation gift back in 1995 – I really think this is going to be the era of the crock pot comeback (70s…60s? not sure what it’s coming back from).
People will want to start eating at home more….but many still don’t have the time to cook or want to spend the time learning the “joy of cooking”
buy some meat and veggies from your favorite “regional” farmer and cram it into your crock pot on your way out the door in the morning.
Maybe not in 2010 – but at least this decade.
One trend I’ve noticed in my blog hits is that recipes for slow cookers or crockpots get the most hits by far–especially those that feature out-of-the-mainstream meats like lamb.
Agreed. Jennette Turner’s recipe for Lamb Tagine has been drawing a ton of traffic here.